disruption

Big Bets Volume 1 -- April 21, 2018

The big bet:

Incumbent Airlines will be acquired by Big Banks during the next financial crisis….

Here are my predictions:

download-2.jpg

 

 

(they’ve actually already laid the consumer-facing groundwork + branding for this!)

United + Chase

Delta + American Express

American Airlines + Citi

(*Note - not talking about ‘disruptor’ airlines like jetBlue, Southwest, Virgin, etc. That’s another Big Bet, for another time)

During the next recession, the service industry will get crushed like it always does. In a race to protect margin and keep discretionary spending fueling their credit card business, banks will take extreme measures. Airlines, already operating at close margins, are increasingly incurring unforecastable expenses, (things like TSA delays, costs associated w/ rescheduling customers, vacillating price of oil, regulatory changes, union demands) will be challenged like they always are.

But this time, the government won’t save the airlines like they did after 9/11. Here’s why:

  • competition - upstarts like Southwest, jetBlue, and Virgin keep nipping at the profit margins of the incumbent airlines. The upstarts won’t need a bailout because they run a different and leaner ship.

  • It’s a dog eat dog world out here -- we are operating in a MAGA society where it’s hard to imagine that the Federal Government would bail out commercial airline companies. Welcome to capitalism in 2018, friends.

Enter big banks who have deep financial relationships with aforementioned airlines….they are already trading money for miles! Ponder that for one moment -- by issuing credit cards with mileage points associated with the amount of money a consumer spends on the card, the banks get a pretty healthy insider focus group with which to understand the airline industry….and their acquiree’s business.

tmg-article_tall.jpg

Keep your friends close and your potential acquisitions closer, is, I guess, how the old saying goes.

some great content for your weekend...

Patti Smith on the BBC yesterday... "Loss is something we never get over."


Barb Corcoran speaking the truth!! (Lo Siento if you too are exposed to the espanol ad before the real content!)


loved this (second ever!) New Yorker podcast with Amy Schumer & Jorge Ramos. hosted by New Yorker editor, David Remnick on WNYC. loved the part where Ramos says his yoga breathing helps him keep his calm in stressful on-camera situations :) 




i find this kind of thing amusing and proof that we are still in such an early-early internet landscape. we are just barely toddlers - learning to police ourselves and things like copyright law are hard to find relevant in the digital age.  and the beat goes on.

what i'm reading...

Malcolm Gladwell on the power of Entrepreneurial Underdogs.  I love that he talks about people and companies who have come through great tragedy and have one of two reactions to it. Here it is in Inc Magazine:  It's go time. Screen Shot 2014-10-09 at 3.35.55 PM

Sumpto:  (a company I have great faith in) is really upping the ante with regard to rewarding college students for their interactions with Brands on Facebook and Twitter. It's a brilliant concept, really.

Screen Shot 2014-10-07 at 9.05.42 AM

gotta shout out to the home team, Casey Neistat dropping some knowledge the last few weeks. here's one i loved (obvi)

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSr6h5-fCU&w=560&h=315]

Hook'd:  this app is brilliant and hilarious all at the same time

Screen Shot 2014-10-09 at 3.37.09 PM:

this is effing brilliant, i think:

https://twitter.com/jordanr1000/status/519906513897267200

Jason Calacanis dropping the knowledge: "real strength is having alignment with what you are and what you're doing."

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kxc40MR5dg&w=560&h=315]

and OF COURSE i'm reading this month's Yoga Journal where my dear friend, Kathryn Budig is gracing the cover!

Screen Shot 2014-10-09 at 3.39.33 PM

till next time!!